Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 904 ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 682 ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 904 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:16	SMF 11:00	13%	2%	0.4%	88%
DL 743 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	SMF 19:53	21%	5%	0.8%	77%
DL 682 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	SMF 22:53	21%	4%	0.8%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON