Today: DL 2754 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet today DL 2754 ATL 08:20 → TUL 09:18 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2620 ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2754 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	TUL 09:18	13%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1186 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:55	TUL 15:53	19%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 2043 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:18	TUL 23:19	22%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 2837 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:01	TUL 18:04	24%	5%	0.7%	72%
DL 2620 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	TUL 11:56	26%	3%	0.8%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON