Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:46 pm at Atlanta)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 17:11, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Traverse City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	3h 45m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	6h 57m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ATL 18:57 → ORD 20:23UA 1046	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54UA 3572 · flown by Republic	4h 57m	66%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON