tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:26 pm at Appleton); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 18:33, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATW 18:33 → DTW 20:57DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest 1h 54m Detroit DTW 22:51 → ATL 00:54 +1DL 9963 5h 21m 90% 75%
DeltaDetails → ATW 16:10 → MSP 17:40DL 3861 · flown by SkyWest 2h 09m Minneapolis MSP 19:49 → ATL 23:44DL 1032 6h 34m 89% 74%
AmericanDetails → ATW 16:13 → CLT 19:34AA 5516 · flown by PSA 3h 19m Charlotte CLT 22:53 → ATL 00:09 +1AA 1656 6h 56m 97% 58%
AmericanDetails → ATW 15:58 → CLT 19:22AA 5021 · flown by PSA 1h 05m Charlotte CLT 20:27 → ATL 21:48AA 5498 · flown by PSA 4h 50m 81% 40%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ATW 17:29 → ORD 18:59UA 4633 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Chicago ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770 5h 01m 75% 62%
DeltaDetails → ATW 16:10 → MSP 17:40DL 3861 · flown by SkyWest 57m Minneapolis MSP 18:37 → ATL 22:28DL 1026 5h 18m 71% 58%
AmericanDetails → ATW 16:13 → CLT 19:34AA 5516 · flown by PSA 53m Charlotte CLT 20:27 → ATL 21:48AA 5498 · flown by PSA 4h 35m 74% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON