Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:25 pm at Appleton)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5516 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATW 16:14	CLT 19:34	23%	7%	0.7%	67%
AA 5021 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATW 15:58	CLT 19:22	23%	7%	0.8%	54%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATW 16:10 → MSP 17:40DL 3861 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	6h 34m	93%	75%
American Details →	ATW 12:39 → DFW 15:25AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:54 → CLT 21:44AA 1703	8h 05m	95%	63%
United Details →	ATW 12:47 → ORD 13:22UA 4757 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → CLT 17:59UA 5757 · flown by SkyWest	4h 12m	78%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON