tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:48 am at Appleton); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
G4 1561 Allegiant Flight history → ATW 16:57 DEN 18:28 21% 8% 0.5% 71%
G4 3181 Allegiant ATW 17:29 DEN 19:03 22% 8% 0.5% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ATW 17:29 → ORD 18:59UA 4633 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Chicago ORD 22:15 → DEN 00:07 +1UA 767 7h 38m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → ATW 12:47 → ORD 13:22UA 4757 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Chicago ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 6h 26m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → ATW 15:58 → CLT 19:22AA 5021 · flown by PSA 1h 55m Charlotte CLT 21:17 → DEN 23:08AA 2366 8h 10m 94% 70%
AmericanDetails → ATW 16:14 → CLT 19:34AA 5516 · flown by PSA 2h 05m Charlotte CLT 21:39 → DEN 23:09AA 3156 7h 55m 95% 69%
AmericanDetails → ATW 19:15 → ORD 20:55AA 3410 · flown by Envoy 1h 40m Chicago ORD 22:35 → DEN 00:17 +1AA 1387 6h 02m 96% 66%
DeltaDetails → ATW 16:10 → MSP 17:40DL 3861 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Minneapolis MSP 18:45 → DEN 19:56DL 2931 4h 46m 83% 64%
AmericanDetails → ATW 12:39 → DFW 15:25AA 3977 · flown by Envoy 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → DEN 19:41AA 2235 8h 02m 96% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ATW 17:29 → ORD 18:59UA 4633 · flown by SkyWest 46m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DEN 21:20UA 329 4h 51m 62% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON