Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4189 ATW 06:08 → DFW 09:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 3977 ATW 12:39 → DFW 15:25 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4189 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 06:08	DFW 09:12	6%	3%	0.8%	95%
AA 3673 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 06:00	DFW 08:49	7%	4%	0.8%	91%
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 12:39	DFW 15:25	10%	4%	0.7%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON