Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3861 at 16:10, 27%.

Safest bet today DL 3861 ATW 16:10 → MSP 17:40 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest OO 4609 ATW 17:22 → MSP 18:36 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3861 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATW 16:10	MSP 17:40	27%	10%	0.5%	74%
OO 3983 SkyWest	ATW 16:20	MSP 17:36	35%	9%	0.5%	no record
OO 4609 SkyWest	ATW 17:22	MSP 18:36	35%	11%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON