Today: MQ 3340 at 11:26 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–26%.

Safest bet today MQ 3340 ATW 11:26 → ORD 12:38 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4633 ATW 17:29 → ORD 18:59 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 3340 Envoy	ATW 11:26	ORD 12:38	11%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 11:15	ORD 12:32	11%	3%	0.4%	89%
AA 3410 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 19:15	ORD 20:55	13%	5%	1.0%	73%
OO 4648 SkyWest	ATW 08:06	ORD 09:17	15%	7%	0.4%	no record
OO 4669 SkyWest	ATW 09:58	ORD 11:09	15%	6%	0.3%	no record
MQ 3341 Envoy	ATW 18:10	ORD 19:20	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 4637 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATW 10:37	ORD 11:59	17%	5%	0.4%	68%
OO 4681 SkyWest	ATW 14:39	ORD 16:05	21%	6%	0.4%	no record
UA 4757 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATW 12:34	ORD 13:57	23%	6%	0.4%	80%
UA 4633 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATW 17:29	ORD 18:59	26%	7%	0.6%	60%
UA 4170 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 12:24	ORD 13:46	12%	5%	1.6%	88%
UA 4190 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 08:15	ORD 09:45	14%	7%	0.0%	86%
UA 4383 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 14:40	ORD 15:59	36%	19%	8.9%	64%
UA 4391 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 15:44	ORD 17:05	40%	11%	5.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON