Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 188 Southwest	AUS 11:45	AMA 13:17	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 250 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 13:20	AMA 14:40	13%	3%	0.6%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274	1h 40m Dallas	DAL 08:20 → AMA 09:35WN 3012	4h 00m	100%	90%
American Details →	AUS 08:40 → DFW 09:58AA 3401 · flown by Envoy	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:21 → AMA 14:49AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	6h 09m	100%	87%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:22 → AMA 09:44AA 3389 · flown by Envoy	4h 43m	96%	86%
Southwest Details →	AUS 08:05 → DAL 09:10WN 1271	3h 35m Dallas	DAL 12:45 → AMA 14:11WN 1897	6h 06m	100%	86%
United Details →	AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966	2h 57m Houston	IAH 09:30 → AMA 11:21UA 4821 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 51m	98%	86%
American Details →	AUS 15:44 → DFW 16:58AA 3726 · flown by Envoy	3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → AMA 21:27AA 3510 · flown by Envoy	5h 43m	100%	83%
American Details →	AUS 04:58 → DFW 06:11AA 862	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:23 → AMA 09:45AA 3920 · flown by Envoy	4h 47m	92%	81%
United Details →	AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa	3h 09m Houston	IAH 20:34 → AMA 22:30UA 4839 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 20m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AUS 19:03 → DFW 20:17AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:16 → AMA 22:38AA 3990 · flown by Envoy	3h 35m	68%	58%
American Details →	AUS 12:40 → DFW 13:54AA 1402	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:40 → AMA 16:08AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	3h 28m	66%	55%
American Details →	AUS 17:40 → DFW 19:05AA 6410 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → AMA 21:27AA 3510 · flown by Envoy	3h 47m	65%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON