Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:47 am at Austin)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 4929 at 09:22, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 4929 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 09:22	ASE 10:50	24%	11%	1.2%	74%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	2h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 17:12 → ASE 20:25DL 3704 · flown by SkyWest	7h 45m	94%	77%
United Details →	AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595	3h 51m Denver	DEN 13:40 → ASE 14:44UA 5771 · flown by SkyWest	7h 14m	99%	76%
United Details →	AUS 14:45 → DEN 16:22UA 2447	2h 48m Denver	DEN 19:10 → ASE 20:11UA 5779 · flown by SkyWest	6h 26m	97%	75%
American Details →	AUS 07:00 → DFW 08:20AA 2928	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:50 → ASE 12:21AA 4912 · flown by SkyWest	6h 21m	96%	74%
United Details →	AUS 11:27 → DEN 12:45UA 779	3h 37m Denver	DEN 16:22 → ASE 17:26UA 5697 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	99%	72%
American Details →	AUS 08:40 → DFW 09:58AA 3401 · flown by Envoy	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:28 → ASE 13:51AA 6384 · flown by SkyWest	6h 11m	98%	71%
United Details →	AUS 13:56 → LAX 15:14UA 637	2h 38m Los Angeles	LAX 17:52 → ASE 21:18UA 5786 · flown by SkyWest	8h 22m	89%	71%
United Details →	AUS 12:55 → DEN 14:14UA 1541	3h 11m Denver	DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest	6h 34m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AUS 08:05 → LAX 09:28UA 357	49m Los Angeles	LAX 10:17 → ASE 13:38UA 4700 · flown by SkyWest	6h 33m	69%	51%
United Details →	AUS 13:33 → SFO 15:37UA 1336	48m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → ASE 19:55UA 5711 · flown by SkyWest	7h 22m	59%	37%
United Details →	AUS 12:55 → DEN 14:14UA 1541	53m Denver	DEN 15:07 → ASE 16:08UA 5773 · flown by SkyWest	4h 13m	48%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON