Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1344 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1344 AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 4702 AUS 13:33 → ATL 17:06 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1344 Delta Flight history →	AUS 05:25	ATL 08:47	5%	2%	0.4%	96%
WN 251 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:30	ATL 08:45	6%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 1258 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:25	ATL 09:45	8%	3%	0.9%	94%
DL 2899 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	ATL 11:26	10%	3%	0.9%	88%
WN 3642 Southwest	AUS 07:15	ATL 10:32	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2976 Delta Flight history →	AUS 10:35	ATL 13:54	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 2886 Delta Flight history →	AUS 12:09	ATL 15:35	13%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 2011 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:31	ATL 17:00	14%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 2104 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:00	ATL 18:25	16%	5%	0.8%	79%
DL 1397 Delta Flight history →	AUS 16:55	ATL 20:29	18%	5%	0.8%	80%
DL 1491 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:24	ATL 21:59	18%	6%	0.8%	76%
WN 267 Southwest	AUS 13:35	ATL 16:52	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 255 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 21:55	ATL 01:20	25%	7%	0.6%	42%
WN 254 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:05	ATL 18:30	30%	6%	0.6%	40%
F9 4702 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 13:33	ATL 17:06	37%	13%	1.2%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON