Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4446 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4446 AUS 06:55 → BNA 09:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4163 AUS 18:57 → BNA 21:18 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4446 Southwest	AUS 06:55	BNA 09:01	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 256 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 07:10	BNA 09:15	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 407 Southwest	AUS 08:41	BNA 10:47	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4319 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 08:25	BNA 10:30	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 271 Southwest	AUS 10:30	BNA 12:36	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3960 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 08:25	BNA 10:43	16%	7%	0.6%	79%
WN 258 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 12:10	BNA 14:15	17%	5%	0.6%	61%
WN 1890 Southwest	AUS 13:15	BNA 15:21	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 259 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 16:30	BNA 18:40	22%	6%	0.6%	39%
WN 261 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 17:40	BNA 19:50	22%	8%	0.6%	35%
DL 3945 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 15:34	BNA 18:02	24%	9%	0.6%	60%
DL 4163 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 18:57	BNA 21:18	24%	8%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON