tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:51 pm at Austin); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Charleston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 15:00 → ATL 18:25DL 2104 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 22:05 → CHS 23:19DL 2525 7h 19m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → AUS 16:55 → ATL 20:29DL 1397 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850 6h 31m 96% 74%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 15:35 → MDW 18:05WN 360 1h 40m Chicago MDW 19:45 → CHS 22:55WN 2042 6h 20m 89% 67%
AmericanDetails → AUS 15:44 → DFW 16:58AA 3726 · flown by Envoy 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:17 → CHS 22:55AA 2559 6h 11m 97% 60%
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:13 → IAH 17:17UA 685 1h 20m Houston IAH 18:37 → CHS 22:15UA 1469 5h 02m 75% 52%
AmericanDetails → AUS 17:49 → CLT 21:34AA 3070 1h 16m Charlotte CLT 22:50 → CHS 23:59AA 1141 5h 10m 78% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → AUS 18:45 → HOU 19:45WN 4255 1h 10m Houston HOU 20:55 → CHS 00:32 +1WN 2024 4h 47m 67% 45%
AmericanDetails → AUS 17:40 → CLT 21:36AA 1408 1h 12m Charlotte CLT 22:48 → CHS 23:54AA 1749 5h 14m 67% 42%
AmericanDetails → AUS 17:30 → MIA 21:30AA 1411 46m Miami MIA 22:16 → CHS 23:59AA 2948 5h 29m 51% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON