Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1482 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1482 AUS 06:16 → CLT 10:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 3070 AUS 17:49 → CLT 21:34 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1482 American Flight history →	AUS 06:16	CLT 10:10	9%	6%	0.4%	97%
AA 1032 American Flight history →	AUS 06:11	CLT 09:53	11%	6%	0.4%	92%
AA 1886 American Flight history →	AUS 08:12	CLT 12:00	15%	8%	0.3%	81%
AA 818 American Flight history →	AUS 11:51	CLT 15:35	16%	5%	0.9%	79%
AA 1419 American Flight history →	AUS 13:02	CLT 16:58	22%	6%	0.9%	77%
AA 1052 American	AUS 15:41	CLT 19:24	31%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 1408 American Flight history →	AUS 17:40	CLT 21:36	31%	9%	1.0%	67%
AA 3070 American Flight history →	AUS 17:49	CLT 21:34	33%	8%	1.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON