Today: WN 654 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–28%.

Safest bet today WN 654 AUS 08:20 → CMH 12:08 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3119 AUS 16:15 → CMH 20:03 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 654 Southwest	AUS 08:20	CMH 12:08	13%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 270 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 10:55	CMH 14:35	16%	3%	0.2%	79%
DL 4028 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 09:23	CMH 13:17	17%	6%	0.4%	87%
WN 3119 Southwest	AUS 16:15	CMH 20:03	28%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON