Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4511 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 4511 AUS 05:45 → DAL 06:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1255 AUS 20:10 → DAL 21:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4511 Southwest	AUS 05:45	DAL 06:53	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 274 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:35	DAL 06:40	3%	1%	0.7%	98%
WN 2636 Southwest	AUS 08:25	DAL 09:34	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1271 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 08:05	DAL 09:10	7%	2%	0.7%	94%
WN 425 Southwest	AUS 12:12	DAL 13:21	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 910 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 12:10	DAL 13:15	16%	3%	0.6%	73%
WN 280 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 21:55	DAL 23:05	16%	8%	0.6%	53%
WN 3857 Southwest	AUS 14:02	DAL 15:11	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 277 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 16:05	DAL 17:15	16%	5%	0.6%	62%
WN 2134 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 19:05	DAL 20:10	18%	7%	0.6%	57%
WN 1255 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 20:10	DAL 21:15	19%	8%	0.6%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON