Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:21 am at Austin)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 266 at 12:05, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 266 Southwest	AUS 12:05	DCA 16:10	18%	4%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 07:15 → STL 09:15WN 408	4h 00m St Louis	STL 13:15 → DCA 16:25WN 3522	8h 10m	100%	88%
United Details →	AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393	3h 42m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654	7h 53m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	AUS 11:30 → STL 13:35WN 409	2h 20m St Louis	STL 15:55 → DCA 19:05WN 3619	6h 35m	98%	84%
United Details →	AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39UA 1878	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752	8h 12m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	AUS 13:48 → MSP 16:35DL 2062	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	9h 08m	99%	83%
United Details →	AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196	3h 35m Houston	IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625	7h 56m	99%	82%
United Details →	AUS 12:15 → IAH 13:20UA 1747	3h 29m Houston	IAH 16:49 → DCA 20:54UA 235	7h 39m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	AUS 09:43 → MSP 12:41DL 3813 · flown by SkyWest	1h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	7h 26m	95%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	AUS 16:31 → DTW 20:35DL 2736	49m Detroit	DTW 21:24 → DCA 22:59DL 2073	5h 28m	58%	45%
United Details →	AUS 16:12 → IAH 17:15UA 685	50m Houston	IAH 18:05 → DCA 22:15UA 1627	5h 03m	42%	31%
American Details →	AUS 13:52 → PHL 18:32AA 1423	53m Philadelphia	PHL 19:25 → DCA 20:41AA 5019 · flown by PSA	5h 49m	51%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON