Today: WN 2918 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet today WN 2918 AUS 06:15 → DEN 07:32 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 753 AUS 13:15 → DEN 14:25 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 28% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2918 Southwest	AUS 06:15	DEN 07:32	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
UA 361 United Flight history →	AUS 05:39	DEN 06:58	6%	3%	0.3%	97%
UA 595 United Flight history →	AUS 08:30	DEN 09:49	14%	4%	0.3%	89%
WN 2574 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 08:10	DEN 09:20	14%	2%	0.2%	71%
WN 4626 Southwest	AUS 08:55	DEN 10:10	16%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2130 Southwest	AUS 10:03	DEN 11:18	16%	2%	0.2%	no record
F9 1815 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 06:30	DEN 07:49	16%	6%	0.7%	88%
WN 4523 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 09:30	DEN 10:40	17%	2%	0.2%	75%
UA 779 United Flight history →	AUS 11:27	DEN 12:45	17%	6%	0.3%	92%
DL 3876 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:25	DEN 08:48	17%	6%	0.2%	92%
UA 1541 United Flight history →	AUS 12:55	DEN 14:14	18%	8%	0.3%	96%worse than usual
WN 1680 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 10:45	DEN 11:55	19%	3%	0.2%	70%
WN 310 Southwest	AUS 11:57	DEN 13:12	20%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 2447 United Flight history →	AUS 14:45	DEN 16:22	21%	7%	0.3%	82%
WN 2573 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 18:35	DEN 20:05	22%	6%	0.6%	46%
WN 319 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 21:20	DEN 22:33	23%	6%	0.5%	44%
WN 1192 Southwest	AUS 18:55	DEN 20:09	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 439 United Flight history →	AUS 18:29	DEN 20:00	23%	8%	0.6%	68%
WN 313 Southwest	AUS 17:30	DEN 18:46	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2472 Southwest	AUS 13:58	DEN 15:15	26%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 3399 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 12:10	DEN 13:20	30%	4%	0.2%	70%
F9 2047 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 20:20	DEN 21:42	32%	8%	0.7%	70%
DL 3669 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 16:49	DEN 18:14	33%	8%	0.7%	66%
WN 753 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 13:15	DEN 14:25	39%	7%	0.2%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON