Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:05 pm at Austin); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 2736 at 16:31, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2736 Delta Flight history →	AUS 16:31	DTW 20:35	25%	8%	0.4%	81%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AUS 15:37 → ORD 18:39UA 1625	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 3475 · flown by Republic	7h 17m	90%	82%
Delta Details →	AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21DL 2581	2h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:50 → DTW 05:12 +1DL 2841	8h 47m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	AUS 16:55 → ATL 20:29DL 1397	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	7h 04m	95%	67%
Southwest Details →	AUS 15:35 → MDW 18:05WN 360	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 19:35 → DTW 21:45WN 2746	5h 10m	85%	66%
United Details →	AUS 17:00 → IAD 21:19UA 376	1h 07m Dulles	IAD 22:26 → DTW 00:13 +1UA 2846	6h 13m	78%	60%
American Details →	AUS 15:44 → DFW 16:58AA 3726 · flown by Envoy	2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:53 → DTW 23:29AA 313	6h 45m	100%	58%
United Details →	AUS 17:20 → ORD 20:21UA 1990	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → DTW 23:49UA 349	5h 29m	75%	58%
United Details →	AUS 16:13 → IAH 17:17UA 685	1h 26m Houston	IAH 18:43 → DTW 22:42UA 2755	5h 29m	81%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	AUS 17:25 → BWI 21:40WN 3385	1h 00m Baltimore	BWI 22:40 → DTW 00:20 +1WN 942	5h 55m	64%	44%
United Details →	AUS 20:01 → SFO 21:50UA 292	46m San Francisco	SFO 22:36 → DTW 06:13 +1UA 1986	9h 12m	45%	34%
American Details →	AUS 17:40 → DFW 19:05AA 6410 · flown by SkyWest	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:53 → DTW 23:29AA 313	4h 49m	42%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON