Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 25–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 295 AUS 12:15 → ECP 14:15 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time Riskiest DL 3767 AUS 12:43 → ECP 15:02 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 295 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 12:15	ECP 14:15	25%	8%	1.0%	54%
WN 512 Southwest	AUS 12:35	ECP 14:39	25%	7%	1.0%	no record
DL 3767 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 12:43	ECP 15:02	28%	11%	1.3%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON