Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: B6 2272 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–37%.

Safest bet that day B6 2272 AUS 07:00 → FLL 10:52 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 1972 AUS 15:04 → FLL 18:58 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 2272 JetBlue Flight history →	AUS 07:00	FLL 10:52	16%	6%	0.6%	86%
WN 300 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 19:25	FLL 23:15	24%	10%	0.5%	38%
WN 329 Southwest	AUS 15:46	FLL 19:46	30%	8%	0.5%	no record
B6 2372 JetBlue Flight history →	AUS 13:00	FLL 16:53	31%	12%	0.6%	73%
B6 1972 JetBlue Flight history →	AUS 15:04	FLL 18:58	37%	13%	0.6%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON