Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 25–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 140 AUS 14:40 → IND 18:07 · 25% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4842 AUS 21:00 → IND 00:29 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 140 Southwest	AUS 14:40	IND 18:07	25%	7%	0.1%	no record
WN 927 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:20	IND 18:45	26%	8%	0.1%	83%
DL 4027 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 14:03	IND 17:47	26%	7%	0.2%	86%worse than usual
DL 3731 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 19:15	IND 22:58	29%	8%	0.2%	81%
WN 4842 Southwest	AUS 21:00	IND 00:29	31%	9%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON