Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 107 AUS 10:10 → JAX 13:44 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1604 AUS 12:40 → JAX 16:13 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 107 SkyWest	AUS 10:10	JAX 13:44	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 3772 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 10:11	JAX 13:51	20%	6%	0.8%	87%
WN 320 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 10:40	JAX 14:10	23%	5%	0.4%	88%worse than usual
WN 1604 Southwest	AUS 12:40	JAX 16:13	28%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON