Today: DL 2323 at 15:35 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–45%.

Safest bet today DL 2323 AUS 15:35 → JFK 20:51 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 1409 AUS 16:30 → JFK 21:30 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2323 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:35	JFK 20:51	23%	8%	0.4%	73%
DL 1643 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:00	JFK 22:59	28%	8%	0.3%	80%
AA 1222 American	AUS 17:14	JFK 22:04	44%	13%	0.7%	no record
AA 1409 American Flight history →	AUS 16:30	JFK 21:30	45%	13%	0.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON