Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 332 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 332 AUS 05:10 → LAX 06:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1291 AUS 20:43 → LAX 21:56 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 332 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:10	LAX 06:15	5%	1%	0.6%	95%
WN 1276 Southwest	AUS 05:15	LAX 06:25	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 4642 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 06:00	LAX 07:40	6%	3%	0.5%	97%
AA 6472 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 06:23	LAX 07:43	8%	4%	0.5%	100%
AA 6185 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:06	LAX 08:37	9%	5%	0.5%	86%
DL 306 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:30	LAX 08:37	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 5841 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 14:10	LAX 15:40	11%	6%	0.5%	90%
UA 357 United Flight history →	AUS 08:06	LAX 09:27	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 946 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:40	LAX 14:48	13%	5%	0.6%	90%
AA 6409 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 15:11	LAX 16:37	15%	8%	0.5%	85%
WN 333 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 12:45	LAX 13:50	20%	4%	0.5%	72%
DL 986 Delta Flight history →	AUS 16:15	LAX 17:20	22%	6%	0.6%	68%
WN 334 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 17:30	LAX 18:45	24%	8%	0.5%	47%
DL 1584 Delta Flight history →	AUS 20:30	LAX 21:43	24%	6%	0.7%	84%
WN 65 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 22:15	LAX 23:25	25%	8%	0.5%	70%
AA 1291 American Flight history →	AUS 20:43	LAX 21:56	39%	11%	0.8%	72%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	AUS 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 374	50m Phoenix	PHX 07:50 → LAX 09:15WN 2504	4h 35m	92%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON