Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:29 am at Austin)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4915 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 13:15	LGB 14:10	24%	4%	0.1%	38%
WN 3015 Southwest	AUS 16:55	LGB 18:10	26%	6%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 09:30 → DEN 10:40WN 4523	2h 45m Denver	DEN 13:25 → LGB 14:50WN 4259	7h 20m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	AUS 12:10 → DEN 13:20WN 3399	1h 30m Denver	DEN 14:50 → LGB 16:17WN 4483	6h 07m	98%	77%
Southwest Details →	AUS 14:00 → RNO 15:25WN 4078	4h 00m Reno	RNO 19:25 → LGB 21:00WN 3588	9h 00m	95%	76%
Southwest Details →	AUS 11:35 → LAS 12:20WN 323	2h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 14:30 → LGB 15:44WN 2401	6h 09m	99%	74%
Southwest Details →	AUS 13:15 → DEN 14:25WN 753	3h 50m Denver	DEN 18:15 → LGB 20:00WN 1037	8h 45m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	AUS 11:45 → PHX 12:05WN 375	3h 55m Phoenix	PHX 16:00 → LGB 17:28WN 3896	7h 43m	97%	71%
Southwest Details →	AUS 15:50 → LAS 16:40WN 4143	3h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 20:00 → LGB 21:14WN 3394	7h 24m	100%	70%
Southwest Details →	AUS 16:05 → SMF 17:40WN 406	1h 55m Sacramento	SMF 19:35 → LGB 21:05WN 4934	7h 00m	85%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	AUS 16:05 → SMF 17:40WN 406	1h 00m Sacramento	SMF 18:40 → LGB 20:16WN 3941	6h 11m	67%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON