tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:06 am at Austin)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1006 Southwest AUS 11:20 MAF 12:53 24% 4% 0.3% no record
WN 342 Southwest Flight history → AUS 14:10 MAF 15:20 27% 8% 0.6% 61%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:40 → HOU 06:40WN 301 1h 50m Houston HOU 08:30 → MAF 10:06WN 320 4h 26m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 3h 02m Houston IAH 09:35 → MAF 11:07UA 6186 · flown by Mesa 5h 37m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274 2h 35m Dallas DAL 09:15 → MAF 10:37WN 4593 5h 02m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → MAF 13:34UA 6338 · flown by Mesa 6h 24m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 08:05 → DAL 09:10WN 1271 2h 35m Dallas DAL 11:45 → MAF 12:55WN 4579 4h 50m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 12:15 → IAH 13:20UA 1747 3h 15m Houston IAH 16:35 → MAF 18:15UA 6233 · flown by Mesa 6h 00m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:35 → MAF 16:15UA 6322 · flown by Mesa 6h 40m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → AUS 08:40 → DFW 09:58AA 3401 · flown by Envoy 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:32 → MAF 13:49AA 3652 · flown by Envoy 5h 09m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AUS 10:28 → DFW 11:46AA 794 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:32 → MAF 13:49AA 3652 · flown by Envoy 3h 21m 66% 52%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 18:35 → DEN 20:05WN 2573 50m Denver DEN 20:55 → MAF 23:45WN 3473 5h 10m 72% 48%
UnitedDetails → AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 1h 03m Houston IAH 20:13 → MAF 21:48UA 2236 3h 44m 69% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON