Today: WN 1563 at 12:35 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–38%.

Safest bet today WN 1563 AUS 12:35 → MCI 14:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest DL 3577 AUS 17:05 → MCI 19:16 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1563 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 12:35	MCI 14:30	16%	3%	0.1%	69%
WN 364 Southwest	AUS 14:25	MCI 16:26	20%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 1584 Southwest	AUS 21:00	MCI 22:59	27%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 3577 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 17:05	MCI 19:16	38%	13%	0.4%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON