Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 372 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 372 AUS 05:05 → MDW 07:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 360 AUS 15:35 → MDW 18:05 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 18% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 372 Southwest	AUS 05:05	MDW 07:39	4%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 4961 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:00	MDW 07:30	4%	1%	0.1%	92%
WN 373 Southwest	AUS 09:20	MDW 11:54	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4077 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 10:25	MDW 12:55	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 2089 Southwest	AUS 13:05	MDW 15:40	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 359 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 13:25	MDW 15:55	17%	3%	0.5%	59%
WN 361 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 21:10	MDW 23:45	20%	6%	0.5%	64%
WN 4469 Southwest	AUS 15:20	MDW 17:55	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 360 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:35	MDW 18:05	22%	5%	0.5%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON