Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:31 am at Austin)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3645 Southwest	AUS 14:45	MEM 16:36	25%	8%	0.5%	no record
DL 3952 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 19:55	MEM 21:48	25%	13%	0.9%	77%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 08:10 → DEN 09:20WN 2574	1h 32m Denver	DEN 10:52 → MEM 14:13WN 1680	6h 03m	97%	81%
United Details →	AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393	3h 42m Houston	IAH 11:55 → MEM 13:41UA 5758 · flown by SkyWest	6h 31m	100%	80%
United Details →	AUS 08:20 → ORD 11:17UA 202	1h 23m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → MEM 14:42UA 5414 · flown by SkyWest	6h 22m	94%	80%
American Details →	AUS 08:40 → DFW 09:58AA 3401 · flown by Envoy	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:28 → MEM 14:04AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	5h 24m	98%	79%
United Details →	AUS 12:15 → IAH 13:20UA 1747	3h 04m Houston	IAH 16:24 → MEM 18:12UA 6158 · flown by Mesa	5h 57m	98%	79%
American Details →	AUS 08:05 → ORD 11:05AA 1726	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 12:15 → MEM 14:04AA 3675 · flown by Envoy	5h 59m	91%	79%
United Details →	AUS 14:18 → IAH 15:24UA 334	2h 41m Houston	IAH 18:05 → MEM 19:54UA 6167 · flown by Mesa	5h 36m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	AUS 16:55 → ATL 20:29DL 1397	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → MEM 23:29DL 8930	6h 34m	96%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	AUS 18:45 → HOU 19:45WN 4255	50m Houston	HOU 20:35 → MEM 22:15WN 4745	3h 30m	54%	39%
United Details →	AUS 16:12 → IAH 17:15UA 685	50m Houston	IAH 18:05 → MEM 19:54UA 6167 · flown by Mesa	3h 42m	45%	37%
American Details →	AUS 17:40 → DFW 19:05AA 6410 · flown by SkyWest	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:55 → MEM 21:27AA 3262	3h 47m	55%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON