Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:31 pm at Austin)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: WN 668 at 15:44, 40%.

Nonstops today


WN 668 Southwest	AUS 15:44	MKE 17:50	40%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 4916 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 19:20	MKE 22:00	46%	11%	0.2%	50%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 17:10 → STL 19:15WN 4684	2h 35m St Louis	STL 21:50 → MKE 23:14WN 1561	6h 04m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	AUS 16:55 → ATL 20:29DL 1397	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268	7h 01m	96%	70%
United Details →	AUS 15:37 → ORD 18:39UA 1625	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MKE 22:29UA 5362 · flown by SkyWest	6h 52m	93%	69%
Southwest Details →	AUS 15:35 → MDW 18:05WN 360	3h 50m Chicago	MDW 21:55 → MKE 22:50WN 2043	7h 15m	100%	62%
United Details →	AUS 16:13 → IAH 17:17UA 685	2h 40m Houston	IAH 19:57 → MKE 22:45UA 5297 · flown by SkyWest	6h 32m	92%	58%
Southwest Details →	AUS 17:40 → BNA 19:50WN 261	2h 50m Nashville	BNA 22:40 → MKE 00:20 +1WN 4519	6h 40m	98%	56%
Southwest Details →	AUS 16:05 → DAL 17:15WN 277	2h 40m Dallas	DAL 19:55 → MKE 22:25WN 3273	6h 20m	96%	55%
American Details →	AUS 16:55 → DFW 18:11AA 3400 · flown by Envoy	2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → MKE 23:34AA 1234	6h 39m	91%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AUS 19:03 → DFW 20:15AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → MKE 23:34AA 1234	4h 31m	56%	33%
Southwest Details →	AUS 17:25 → BWI 21:40WN 3385	55m Baltimore	BWI 22:35 → MKE 23:43WN 4339	6h 18m	55%	28%
United Details →	AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326	47m Houston	IAH 19:57 → MKE 22:45UA 5297 · flown by SkyWest	4h 41m	21%	13%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON