Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1242 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 1242 AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1042 AUS 18:04 → MSP 20:52 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1242 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:10	MSP 09:00	5%	3%	0.2%	92%
DL 3813 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 09:43	MSP 12:41	13%	8%	0.7%	89%
DL 2062 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:48	MSP 16:35	19%	5%	0.6%	69%
WN 3124 Southwest	AUS 12:55	MSP 15:39	22%	5%	0.4%	no record
DL 1042 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:04	MSP 20:52	24%	9%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON