Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via San Diego, leaving 10:05, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 4368 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 18:15	OAK 19:55	25%	9%	0.5%	8%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 05:10 → LAX 06:15WN 332	3h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 09:25 → OAK 10:51WN 1974	7h 41m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274	2h 10m Dallas	DAL 08:50 → OAK 10:30WN 1268	6h 55m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	AUS 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 374	1h 12m Phoenix	PHX 08:12 → OAK 10:14WN 3435	5h 34m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:40 → HOU 06:40WN 301	1h 25m Houston	HOU 08:05 → OAK 10:11WN 2102	6h 31m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:00 → MDW 07:30WN 4961	2h 35m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → OAK 12:38WN 4280	9h 38m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	AUS 08:10 → DEN 09:20WN 2574	1h 35m Denver	DEN 10:55 → OAK 12:25WN 1577	6h 15m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21DL 2581	1h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	89%	82%
Southwest Details →	AUS 09:15 → SLC 11:00WN 403	2h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:00 → OAK 13:50WN 2951	6h 35m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	AUS 09:25 → LAS 10:10WN 322	51m Las Vegas	LAS 11:01 → OAK 12:39WN 2348	5h 14m	69%	56%
Alaska Details →	AUS 14:59 → SAN 16:05AS 3084 · flown by SkyWest	50m San Diego	SAN 16:55 → OAK 18:33AS 2190 · flown by Horizon	5h 34m	60%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON