Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:40, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 553 Southwest	AUS 11:45	ONT 12:47	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 05:45 → DEN 07:00WN 282	1h 30m Denver	DEN 08:30 → ONT 09:54WN 3001	6h 09m	99%	92%
Southwest Details →	AUS 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 374	3h 05m Phoenix	PHX 10:05 → ONT 11:20WN 431	6h 40m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	AUS 05:40 → HOU 06:40WN 301	1h 20m Houston	HOU 08:00 → ONT 09:20WN 4337	5h 40m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	AUS 08:15 → SJC 09:45WN 398	1h 26m San Jose	SJC 11:11 → ONT 12:37WN 3826	6h 22m	97%	87%
United Details →	AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595	1h 36m Denver	DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430	6h 17m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	AUS 09:30 → DEN 10:40WN 4523	2h 20m Denver	DEN 13:00 → ONT 14:26WN 2947	6h 56m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172	5h 55m	93%	83%
Southwest Details →	AUS 08:10 → DEN 09:20WN 2574	1h 35m Denver	DEN 10:55 → ONT 12:10WN 4080	6h 00m	97%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	AUS 21:35 → PHX 22:00WN 378	55m Phoenix	PHX 22:55 → ONT 00:10 +1WN 223	4h 35m	72%	54%
Southwest Details →	AUS 19:40 → PHX 20:05WN 4426	55m Phoenix	PHX 21:00 → ONT 22:15WN 2862	4h 35m	68%	46%
Frontier Details →	AUS 12:47 → LAS 13:40F9 3645	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 14:45 → ONT 15:54F9 1357	5h 07m	70%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON