Today: UA 1878 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet today UA 1878 AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1180 AUS 17:08 → ORD 20:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 1878 United Flight history →	AUS 06:40	ORD 09:39	8%	4%	0.4%	90%
UA 202 United Flight history →	AUS 08:20	ORD 11:17	9%	4%	0.3%	94%
UA 2133 United Flight history →	AUS 08:43	ORD 11:41	10%	4%	0.3%	84%
AA 1726 American Flight history →	AUS 08:05	ORD 11:05	11%	5%	0.3%	80%
UA 456 United Flight history →	AUS 13:01	ORD 15:57	15%	6%	0.2%	72%
UA 1625 United Flight history →	AUS 15:37	ORD 18:39	22%	8%	0.2%	68%
AA 1398 American Flight history →	AUS 18:26	ORD 21:39	26%	8%	1.6%	60%
AA 1574 American Flight history →	AUS 15:27	ORD 18:35	26%	10%	0.2%	52%
UA 1990 United Flight history →	AUS 17:20	ORD 20:21	28%	12%	0.2%	60%
AA 1812 American	AUS 15:51	ORD 18:35	28%	10%	0.2%	no record
AA 1180 American	AUS 17:08	ORD 20:00	30%	13%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON