tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:27 am at Austin)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AS 541 Alaska Flight history → AUS 07:15 PDX 09:25 10% 3% 0.6% 90%
AS 1396 Alaska Flight history → AUS 17:41 PDX 19:50 18% 5% 0.7% 86%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:00 → MDW 07:30WN 4961 2h 15m Chicago MDW 09:45 → PDX 12:05WN 2217 9h 05m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 1h 07m Denver DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247 6h 08m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:20 → ORD 11:17UA 202 2h 13m Chicago ORD 13:30 → PDX 15:57UA 2817 9h 37m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 3h 38m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 8h 43m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503 10h 21m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 09:43 → MSP 12:41DL 3813 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 9h 52m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:37DL 1661 8h 27m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:20 → SFO 07:05UA 1348 1h 17m San Francisco SFO 08:22 → PDX 10:20UA 2265 7h 00m 93% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → AUS 19:07 → SEA 21:35AS 339 54m Seattle SEA 22:29 → PDX 23:30AS 1457 6h 23m 62% 44%
DeltaDetails → AUS 14:30 → SLC 16:39DL 3908 · flown by SkyWest 46m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 5h 48m 52% 43%
FrontierDetails → AUS 12:47 → LAS 13:40F9 3645 50m Las Vegas LAS 14:30 → PDX 16:54F9 1105 6h 07m 52% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON