Today: AA 2774 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–36%.

Safest bet today AA 2774 AUS 07:30 → PHL 12:05 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2122 AUS 15:00 → PHL 19:47 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2774 American Flight history →	AUS 07:30	PHL 12:05	13%	6%	0.6%	85%
AA 1407 American Flight history →	AUS 12:08	PHL 16:50	25%	10%	0.5%	68%
AA 2405 American	AUS 13:05	PHL 17:54	31%	11%	0.5%	no record
AA 1423 American Flight history →	AUS 13:52	PHL 18:32	31%	14%	0.5%	79%worse than usual
AA 2122 American	AUS 15:00	PHL 19:47	36%	14%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274	1h 24m Dallas	DAL 08:04 → PHL 11:32WN 4832	4h 57m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	AUS 07:10 → BNA 09:15WN 256	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 10:15 → PHL 13:25WN 4879	5h 15m	93%	79%
American Details →	AUS 06:37 → CLT 09:46AA 1032	1h 14m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498	5h 06m	93%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON