Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:12 am at Austin)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: WN 931 at 13:55, 29%.

Nonstops today


WN 931 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 13:55	PNS 15:45	29%	4%	1.0%	68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196	3h 35m Houston	IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 31m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	AUS 07:15 → STL 09:15WN 408	1h 05m St Louis	STL 10:20 → PNS 12:17WN 766	5h 02m	93%	81%
United Details →	AUS 14:18 → IAH 15:24UA 334	2h 48m Houston	IAH 18:12 → PNS 19:58UA 6195 · flown by Mesa	5h 40m	96%	78%
United Details →	AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595	1h 27m Denver	DEN 11:16 → PNS 15:10UA 1891	6h 40m	94%	77%
American Details →	AUS 12:05 → MIA 16:00AA 620	1h 51m Miami	MIA 17:51 → PNS 18:48AA 3743 · flown by Envoy	6h 43m	93%	75%
Southwest Details →	AUS 11:30 → STL 13:35WN 409	1h 20m St Louis	STL 14:55 → PNS 16:40WN 279	5h 10m	95%	75%
Southwest Details →	AUS 10:45 → DEN 11:55WN 1680	1h 50m Denver	DEN 13:45 → PNS 17:40WN 2264	6h 55m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	AUS 15:00 → ATL 18:25DL 2104	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 21:34 → PNS 21:47DL 3086	6h 47m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AUS 12:15 → IAH 13:20UA 1747	1h 00m Houston	IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 51m	70%	59%
American Details →	AUS 17:40 → DFW 19:05AA 6410 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:22 → PNS 22:22AA 5510 · flown by PSA	4h 42m	73%	46%
United Details →	AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa	47m Houston	IAH 18:12 → PNS 19:58UA 6195 · flown by Mesa	3h 48m	54%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON