Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: DL 4967 at 19:29, 27%.

Safest bet today DL 4967 AUS 19:29 → RDU 23:31 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest WN 382 AUS 21:05 → RDU 01:05 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Weather 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 4967 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	AUS 19:29	RDU 23:31	27%	11%	0.6%	75%
WN 335 Southwest	AUS 19:55	RDU 23:58	40%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 382 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 21:05	RDU 01:05	44%	12%	0.2%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON