Today: DL 381 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–37%.

Safest bet today DL 381 AUS 07:10 → SFO 08:47 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest DL 1077 AUS 15:21 → SFO 17:04 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 381 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:10	SFO 08:47	16%	4%	0.2%	72%
WN 4363 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 08:00	SFO 09:45	17%	4%	0.2%	62%
WN 3582 Southwest	AUS 09:50	SFO 11:34	18%	5%	0.1%	no record
UA 1668 United Flight history →	AUS 08:40	SFO 10:25	22%	7%	0.4%	73%
WN 3439 Southwest	AUS 18:30	SFO 20:16	31%	9%	0.5%	no record
UA 1204 United	AUS 20:51	SFO 22:38	31%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 292 United Flight history →	AUS 20:01	SFO 21:50	32%	7%	0.6%	64%
UA 1336 United Flight history →	AUS 13:33	SFO 15:37	35%	14%	0.4%	67%
WN 4779 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 16:35	SFO 18:15	37%	16%	0.1%	39%
UA 442 United Flight history →	AUS 15:35	SFO 17:24	39%	15%	0.4%	65%
DL 1077 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:21	SFO 17:04	40%	15%	0.2%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON