Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 422 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 422 AUS 06:00 → SJC 07:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 400 AUS 21:55 → SJC 23:30 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 422 Southwest	AUS 06:00	SJC 07:45	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 398 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 08:15	SJC 09:45	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 4817 Southwest	AUS 12:10	SJC 13:56	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 400 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 21:55	SJC 23:30	22%	9%	0.6%	45%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	AUS 07:30 → LAX 08:37DL 306	48m Los Angeles	LAX 09:25 → SJC 10:45DL 1380	5h 15m	79%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON