Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3186 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3186 AUS 08:25 → SLC 10:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1180 AUS 19:00 → SLC 20:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 12% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3186 Southwest	AUS 08:25	SLC 10:18	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 2618 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	SLC 10:12	10%	3%	0.6%	94%
WN 403 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 09:15	SLC 11:00	11%	2%	0.4%	79%
DL 2671 Delta Flight history →	AUS 12:20	SLC 14:09	16%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 3908 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 14:30	SLC 16:39	18%	6%	0.6%	86%
DL 2581 Delta Flight history →	AUS 19:25	SLC 21:21	22%	7%	0.6%	82%
WN 1180 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 19:00	SLC 20:45	28%	8%	0.5%	12%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON