Today: WN 432 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–42%.

Safest bet today WN 432 AUS 08:30 → TPA 12:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 534 AUS 17:19 → TPA 20:58 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 432 Southwest	AUS 08:30	TPA 12:09	10%	3%	0.2%	no record
DL 487 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	TPA 11:48	14%	4%	0.3%	85%
WN 433 Southwest	AUS 10:35	TPA 14:13	15%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 3734 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 14:55	TPA 19:01	33%	11%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
WN 4729 Southwest	AUS 20:20	TPA 23:59	35%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 3508 SkyWest	AUS 14:32	TPA 18:12	37%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 4618 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 16:25	TPA 19:55	40%	11%	0.2%	48%
WN 534 Southwest	AUS 17:19	TPA 20:58	42%	9%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON