Today: one nonstop, OH 5573 at 13:41, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OH 5573 AVL 13:41 → CLT 14:39 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


OH 5573 PSA	AVL 13:41	CLT 14:39	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 6101 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 11:20	CLT 12:32	12%	3%	2.0%	88%
AA 6112 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 14:44	CLT 15:58	20%	11%	0.0%	80%
AA 6032 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 18:20	CLT 19:39	39%	21%	0.0%	61%
AA 5792 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 20:15	CLT 21:32	49%	12%	0.0%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON