Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:07 pm at Asheville); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:11, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 18:11 → ATL 18:48DL 3101	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → DFW 22:11DL 3161	5h 00m	90%	62%
American Details →	AVL 19:04 → ORD 20:29AA 3406 · flown by Envoy	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 21:39 → DFW 00:05 +1AA 2281	6h 01m	88%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON