Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:46 pm at Asheville); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:04, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 17:04 → ATL 18:10DL 2037	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	6h 35m	95%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AVL 17:32 → DFW 19:12AA 1429	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:20 → MIA 00:11 +1AA 2090	6h 39m	59%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON