tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:16 pm at Asheville); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 19:04, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → AVL 19:04 → ORD 20:29AA 3406 · flown by Envoy 2h 07m Chicago ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic 6h 18m 92% 80%
DeltaDetails → AVL 15:25 → ATL 16:30DL 3099 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280 7h 13m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → AVL 15:36 → DEN 17:11UA 314 1h 34m Denver DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076 7h 14m 87% 68%
UnitedDetails → AVL 17:38 → ORD 19:00UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest 2h 28m Chicago ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131 6h 32m 97% 67%
AmericanDetails → AVL 15:56 → DFW 17:32AA 569 3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149 9h 01m 97% 65%
DeltaDetails → AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654 5h 19m 81% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AVL 17:38 → ORD 19:00UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest 57m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 5h 03m 72% 52%
DeltaDetails → AVL 17:59 → ATL 19:08DL 3101 51m Atlanta ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280 4h 39m 62% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON