Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 686 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–12%.

Safest bet that day UA 686 SFO 07:05 → IAH 13:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 4244 OAK 13:55 → HOU 19:40 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 686 United Flight history →	SFO 07:05	IAH 13:11	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 2168 United Flight history →	SFO 05:00	IAH 10:55	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 2498 United Flight history →	SFO 08:55	IAH 15:07	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 604 United Flight history →	SFO 00:45	IAH 06:34	9%	2%	0.6%	83%
UA 505 United Flight history →	SFO 00:05	IAH 05:50	10%	2%	0.6%	82%
UA 1702 United Flight history →	SFO 18:54	IAH 00:59	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 2305 United Flight history →	SFO 16:40	IAH 22:52	12%	4%	0.6%	85%
WN 3673 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 09:20	HOU 15:10	13%	2%	0.5%	82%
UA 2002 United Flight history →	SFO 14:28	IAH 20:40	13%	4%	0.6%	71%
UA 1387 United Flight history →	SFO 12:15	IAH 18:27	14%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 1259 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAH 16:52	15%	4%	0.6%	61%
UA 2078 United Flight history →	SJC 13:10	IAH 19:05	19%	6%	0.7%	78%
WN 4244 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:55	HOU 19:40	28%	5%	0.5%	31%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	OAK 05:05 → PHX 07:00WN 3066	1h 05m Phoenix	PHX 08:05 → HOU 12:40WN 2833	5h 35m	96%	84%
Southwest Details →	OAK 09:00 → LAS 10:30WN 2374	55m Las Vegas	LAS 11:25 → HOU 16:35WN 4724	5h 35m	88%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON