Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:09 pm at San Francisco Bay Area); 31 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Today: AA 276 at 21:20 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–28%.

Safest bet today AA 276 SFO 21:20 → JFK 06:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 606 SFO 15:38 → JFK 23:30 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 31 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 276 American Flight history →	SFO 21:20	JFK 06:00	16%	9%	0.5%	87%
UA 698 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	EWR 05:51	17%	7%	0.3%	84%
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:35	JFK 07:02	18%	7%	0.4%	78%
DL 319 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:34	JFK 06:52	19%	8%	0.4%	89%
AS 40 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 22:18	JFK 06:38	21%	8%	0.5%	88%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:05	JFK 00:22	25%	8%	0.4%	77%
DL 396 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:00	JFK 00:40	25%	8%	0.4%	62%
B6 16 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 20:25	JFK 05:07	26%	14%	0.3%	74%
UA 2626 United Flight history →	SFO 16:20	EWR 01:10	26%	9%	0.4%	70%
B6 816 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 23:50	JFK 08:33	27%	11%	0.4%	79%
DL 606 Delta	SFO 15:38	JFK 23:30	28%	9%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON